Retrospective report
August 2026
Quarterly Model - Dispatch Retrospective
Per-region forecast accuracy for the Quarterly Model - Dispatch Retrospective model group during August 2026.
Model revision 0
Generated 3 September 2026 at 5:36 pm (Sydney time)
Predictions use the generator availability AEMO published on 20 July 2026 at 9:00 am (Sydney time).
Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is the average absolute difference between forecast and actual prices.
Bias is the average difference between forecast and actual prices.
To maintain an informative scale, we charted price spikes separately to other prices. We plotted the 6 hours before and after the RRP exceeded $500 as separate, region-specific charts. These price spikes are capped at $500 in the full region prediction charts.
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW1 | 24.19 | 8.61 | $84.31 | $75.71 | 0 |
| QLD1 | 14.00 | 0.86 | $61.29 | $60.42 | 0 |
| SA1 | 24.86 | -14.76 | $56.86 | $71.62 | 0 |
| VIC1 | 23.96 | 12.03 | $72.43 | $60.40 | 0 |
NSW1
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW1 | 24.19 | 8.61 | $84.31 | $75.71 | 0 |
QLD1
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD1 | 14.00 | 0.86 | $61.29 | $60.42 | 0 |
SA1
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA1 | 24.86 | -14.76 | $56.86 | $71.62 | 0 |
VIC1
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIC1 | 23.96 | 12.03 | $72.43 | $60.40 | 0 |
