Retrospective report
Week of 28 September 2026
Week-Ahead Model - First Tier
Per-region forecast accuracy for the Week-Ahead Model - First Tier model group over the week of 28 September 2026.
Model revision 4
Generated 5 October 2026 at 8:52 am (Sydney time)
| Region | MAE1 | Bias2 | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW1 | 41.80 | -28.12 | $51.38 | $79.50 | 0 |
| QLD1 | 19.80 | -12.31 | $43.78 | $56.09 | 0 |
| SA1 | 52.04 | -19.81 | $46.94 | $66.75 | 0 |
| TAS1 | 39.23 | 18.52 | $72.17 | $53.65 | 0 |
| VIC1 | 38.57 | -28.97 | $22.51 | $51.48 | 0 |
1Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is the average absolute difference between forecast and actual prices.
2Bias is the average difference between forecast and actual prices.
3To maintain an informative scale, we charted price spikes separately to other prices. We plotted the 6 hours before and after the RRP exceeded $500 as separate, region-specific charts. These price spikes are capped at $500 in the full region prediction charts.
NSW1
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW1 | 41.80 | -28.12 | $51.38 | $79.50 | 0 |
QLD1
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD1 | 19.80 | -12.31 | $43.78 | $56.09 | 0 |
SA1
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA1 | 52.04 | -19.81 | $46.94 | $66.75 | 0 |
TAS1
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAS1 | 39.23 | 18.52 | $72.17 | $53.65 | 0 |
VIC1
| Region | MAE | Bias | Average predicted price | Average actual price | Price spike windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIC1 | 38.57 | -28.97 | $22.51 | $51.48 | 0 |
