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Retrospective report

Week of 12 October 2026

Week-Ahead Model - First Tier

Per-region forecast accuracy for the Week-Ahead Model - First Tier model group over the week of 12 October 2026.

Model revision 4

Generated 19 October 2026 at 8:45 am (Sydney time)

RegionMAE1Bias2Average predicted priceAverage actual pricePrice spike windows3
NSW1142.95-123.75$68.47$192.211
QLD155.79-50.81$53.86$104.680
SA172.2925.53$52.62$27.083
TAS142.1527.36$65.99$38.630
VIC130.05-13.11$20.94$34.040

1Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is the average absolute difference between forecast and actual prices.

2Bias is the average difference between forecast and actual prices.

3To maintain an informative scale, we charted price spikes separately to other prices. We plotted the 6 hours before and after the RRP exceeded $500 as separate, region-specific charts. These price spikes are capped at $500 in the full region prediction charts.

NSW1

RegionMAEBiasAverage predicted priceAverage actual pricePrice spike windows
NSW1142.95-123.75$68.47$192.211
Change in Forecasted Prices over the Price Spike in NSW1 between 2026-10-12 08:30:00 and 2026-10-12 22:00:00Change in Forecasted Prices over the Prediction Interval in NSW1 using Week-Ahead Model - First Tier (Without Price Spikes)

QLD1

RegionMAEBiasAverage predicted priceAverage actual pricePrice spike windows
QLD155.79-50.81$53.86$104.680
Change in Forecasted Prices over the Prediction Interval in QLD1 using Week-Ahead Model - First Tier

SA1

RegionMAEBiasAverage predicted priceAverage actual pricePrice spike windows
SA172.2925.53$52.62$27.083
Change in Forecasted Prices over the Price Spike in SA1 between 2026-10-16 11:30:00 and 2026-10-16 23:30:00Change in Forecasted Prices over the Price Spike in SA1 between 2026-10-17 17:30:00 and 2026-10-18 05:30:00Change in Forecasted Prices over the Price Spike in SA1 between 2026-10-18 17:00:00 and 2026-10-19 05:30:00Change in Forecasted Prices over the Prediction Interval in SA1 using Week-Ahead Model - First Tier (Without Price Spikes)

TAS1

RegionMAEBiasAverage predicted priceAverage actual pricePrice spike windows
TAS142.1527.36$65.99$38.630
Change in Forecasted Prices over the Prediction Interval in TAS1 using Week-Ahead Model - First Tier

VIC1

RegionMAEBiasAverage predicted priceAverage actual pricePrice spike windows
VIC130.05-13.11$20.94$34.040
Change in Forecasted Prices over the Prediction Interval in VIC1 using Week-Ahead Model - First Tier
Week-Ahead Model - First Tier — week of 12 October 2026 | pdView