Retrospective report

Week of 31 August 2026

Week-Ahead Model - MAX_AVAIL

Per-region forecast accuracy for the Week-Ahead Model - MAX_AVAIL model group over the week of 31 August 2026.

Model revision 2

Generated 7 September 2026 at 7:54 am (Sydney time)

*Note that this model revision was published more recently than the first time a price in this retrospective period was forecast. As a result, this report evaluates the model's performance for a subset of forecasts in the retrospective period.

Region	MAE¹	Bias²	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows³
NSW1	22.68	16.16	$69.87	$53.71	0
QLD1	19.51	15.06	$60.94	$45.88	0
SA1	33.78	11.45	$52.13	$40.69	1
VIC1	26.78	6.48	$39.53	$33.05	0

¹Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is the average absolute difference between forecast and actual prices.

²Bias is the average difference between forecast and actual prices.

³To maintain an informative scale, we charted price spikes separately to other prices. We plotted the 6 hours before and after the RRP exceeded $500 as separate, region-specific charts. These price spikes are capped at $500 in the full region prediction charts.

NSW1

Region	MAE	Bias	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows
NSW1	22.68	16.16	$69.87	$53.71	0

QLD1

Region	MAE	Bias	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows
QLD1	19.51	15.06	$60.94	$45.88	0

SA1

Region	MAE	Bias	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows
SA1	33.78	11.45	$52.13	$40.69	1

Change in Forecasted Prices over the Price Spike in SA1 between 2026-08-31 13:30:00 and 2026-09-01 01:30:00

Change in Forecasted Prices over the Prediction Interval in SA1 using Week-Ahead Model - MAX_AVAIL (Without Price Spikes)

VIC1

Region	MAE	Bias	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows
VIC1	26.78	6.48	$39.53	$33.05	0