Retrospective report

Week of 5 October 2026

Week-Ahead Model - MAX_AVAIL

Per-region forecast accuracy for the Week-Ahead Model - MAX_AVAIL model group over the week of 5 October 2026.

Model revision 2

Generated 12 October 2026 at 9:03 am (Sydney time)

Region	MAE¹	Bias²	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows³
NSW1	65.80	-59.51	$76.12	$135.62	2
QLD1	44.07	-33.26	$70.16	$103.42	1
SA1	51.82	13.88	$48.33	$34.45	1
VIC1	39.06	2.38	$38.61	$36.23	0

¹Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is the average absolute difference between forecast and actual prices.

²Bias is the average difference between forecast and actual prices.

³To maintain an informative scale, we charted price spikes separately to other prices. We plotted the 6 hours before and after the RRP exceeded $500 as separate, region-specific charts. These price spikes are capped at $500 in the full region prediction charts.

NSW1

Region	MAE	Bias	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows
NSW1	65.80	-59.51	$76.12	$135.62	2

Change in Forecasted Prices over the Price Spike in NSW1 between 2026-10-10 01:30:00 and 2026-10-10 13:30:00

Change in Forecasted Prices over the Prediction Interval in NSW1 using Week-Ahead Model - MAX_AVAIL (Without Price Spikes)

QLD1

Region	MAE	Bias	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows
QLD1	44.07	-33.26	$70.16	$103.42	1

Change in Forecasted Prices over the Prediction Interval in QLD1 using Week-Ahead Model - MAX_AVAIL (Without Price Spikes)

SA1

Region	MAE	Bias	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows
SA1	51.82	13.88	$48.33	$34.45	1

Change in Forecasted Prices over the Price Spike in SA1 between 2026-10-09 01:30:00 and 2026-10-09 13:30:00

Change in Forecasted Prices over the Prediction Interval in SA1 using Week-Ahead Model - MAX_AVAIL (Without Price Spikes)

VIC1

Region	MAE	Bias	Average predicted price	Average actual price	Price spike windows
VIC1	39.06	2.38	$38.61	$36.23	0